Despite the near tie in the latest polling of the nationwide popular vote, Obama appears poised to remain in the White House for four more years.
Running our simulation model with the last set of weekly polls before Tuesday’s election, President Obama once again has moved up to a near certain win for the electoral vote. As of November 2, our model predicts a 96% chance of reelection with Governor Romney’s chance of unseating the President falling back to 4%. While there is still buzz about the possibility of an electoral college tie – and the resulting President Romney and Vice-President Biden – that probability has also fallen to near zero.
At this point, Obama can claim 199 electoral votes as near certainties to Romney’s 159. When the likely wins are included Obama’s total rises to 226 and Romney’s to 173. If you include all of the states that are currently leaning for reelection, the President climbs well past the needed 270 to 332 electoral votes.
The challenge for Governor Romney is to retake several of the states that are leaning blue. The most likely of these is New Hampshire followed by Ohio but at a total of 22 electoral votes that only drops Obama to 310. If Romney can also win both Virginia and Florida he raises his total to 272 and a win – but even losing New Hampshire’s four votes from that mix turns his win back to a loss.
At this point our model is predicting an electoral college vote of 314 for President Obama and 224 for Governor Romney – a buffer of 45 votes. While this is the most likely outcome, the next most likely possibilities have even higher totals for the President. In fact the top fifty percent of the outcomes are all above 294 electoral votes.
A common saying by candidates is that the only poll that counts is the one on election day. And while an upset is still a possibility, that possibility currently appears to be quite unlikely.