No question looms larger in Pennsylvania politics than Gov. Tom Corbett’s reelection prospects. Democrats are positively giddy over the possibility of making history and ending the infamous two-term rule. Even some Republican activists have expressed concerns about Corbett’s candidacy. Most of the debate focuses on the governor’s low job performance standing–hovering in the 30 to 40 percent positive range. The fact is that nobody really knows whether Corbett can win a second term.

The variables are many: 1) the health of the overall economy, 2) the success or failure of his agenda, 3) the fiscal situation of the state, 4) the infamous 6-year itch plaguing the party that holds the presidency, 5) the strengths and weaknesses of potential rivals—just to mention five. My writing partner, Mike Young, and I wrote a column recently analyzing a few of the important aspects in play. In this blog, I extend our argument by looking at what recent history tells us about the reelection of Pennsylvania governors. READ MORE »