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Monthly archives for September, 2012

Lincoln Upstages the Altoona Conference

Sep24
2012
1 Comment Robert Swift Written by Robert Swift

An old print titled Eminent Loyal Governors features several of those who met at Altoona, Pa. on Sept. 24, 1862 to discuss the direction of the Civil War under President Abraham Lincoln.

Pictured are John Andrew of Massachusetts, Richard Yates of Illinois, William Sprague of Rhode Island and the event’s organizer, Andrew Curtin of Pennsylvania.

The Altoona Conference came just days after the last Confederate troops had crossed the Potomac River going south after the heralded invasion of Maryland and tactical Union win at Antietam. READ MORE »

Posted in History, Politics

While the campaigns move into the fall, polls show that little has changed

Sep23
2012
Leave a Comment J. Brian Adams Written by J. Brian Adams

The party conventions have passed and the fall campaign season is in full swing. As the campaigns prepare for the October debates the question continues to be asked; “is the current presidential race too close to call, or has one candidate already taken what is possibly an insurmountable lead?”

Polls tend to lag public opinion by about a week so any current events may not be reflected, but using the available polls and our simulation model, President Obama’s probability of reelection has dropped – but by only a small amount. He currently has near a 97% chance of winning with Governor Romney’s probability up slightly to about 3%. The chance of an electoral college tie – a serious possibility several months ago – has dropped to near zero.

The first plot shows the trend in the probabilities while the second shows the range of expected electoral votes for each of the candidates. With the exception of the Romney bounce that occurred following his selection of Paul Ryan for Vice-President in the middle of August, the trends have remained consistently strong in favor of the President.

The slight rise in Romney’s chance appears to be the result of favorable polling in Florida. While Florida has been considered a tossup throughout the campaign, the latest polls indicate a switch from leaning blue to now leaning red. This change gives Romney about a 58% of winning Florida and its 29 electoral votes.

With the possible loss of Florida, our model now gives Obama 247 likely or certain electors to Romney’s 151. That leaves only 23 votes to clinch reelection – with 46 of the remaining 140 electoral votes currently leaning in the President’s favor.

A common discussion point for polls is the margin of error. This is a measure of the uncertainty in the polling. The argument goes that if one candidate is polling within the margin of error – no matter how far from the center – then that candidate still has a chance.

The margin of error in our model is shown in the blue and red bands for each of the candidates. To be a tie these bands would have to have a significant level of overlap – more so than what even occurred in the middle of June. While they do currently overlap – explaining why the current probabilities are not at the certainty level – the overlap is so small that it is a statistical leap to argue that Romney’s true vote count is actually higher than Obama’s, and that the reason for the difference is due to the random error that occurs in all polls.

While world news, campaign announcements, and candidate debates are sure to move these lines, at the present it appears that the status quo is expected to stay.

Posted in Polling

Can We Have a Serious Presidential Campaign?

Sep14
2012
1 Comment Robert Bresler Written by Robert Bresler

 

If the Obama and Romney think this election is historic, they should tell why. They should have an informed debate about what government can and cannot do, drawing upon the experience of last 70 years. It cannot be a simplistic one. Government has done some things well producing: a superb military capable of defending allies and winning wars we had the political will to finish; a GI Bill of Rights, the voucher program that granted millions of men the education and training to enter managerial and professional ranks; a modern interstate highway system that provided people more personal mobility and companies greater ease in moving goods and services; an advanced space exploration program with gave us greater knowledge of the universe and provided unexpected technological benefits; the early environmental laws that gave us cleaner air and water. These programs had achievable goals and were done without massive deficit spending.

At the same time the list of government failures is daunting. Despite the billions spent alleviating poverty, the levels remain unmoved. The social behavior that consigns people into a lifetime of poverty – dropping out of school, getting pregnant in the teenage years, being addicted to drug and alcohol, joining gangs — have proven beyond the reach of the community action and job retraining programs. Public housing produced architectural and social nightmares. Massive federal aid to education has given little for the money. Student performance deteriorated, while school bureaucracy burgeoned and teacher salaries and benefits increased. Despite this federal largess, too many public schools are incapable of producing students with skills to compete in the global economy. Support for higher education has no better record. Federal grants, scholarships and loan program encouraged colleges to continually raise tuition and to created exotic majors and graduate programs that led to few jobs. More college graduates are without the capacity to write clearly or draw upon a useful body of knowledge. Consequently, students carry heavy debt with diminished job prospects.

The biggest failure has been the creation of a burgeoning entitlement state that threatens our entire fiscal structure. Social Security and Medicare were originally designed to help the elderly to be self-supporting and to keep them from becoming destitute. As time went on, the benefits grew larger, the recipients lived longer, and the ratio of working adults to recipients declined. When the Medicare program passed, it was foolishly projected to have modest costs. Now left unreformed Social Security, Medicare, along with interest of the debt could consume almost the entire federal budget, leaving the government unable to pay for much of anything else.

President Obama is likely to propose only modest changes to the status quo. It is Mitt Romney’s opportunity to follow Adlai Stevenson’s example, when he said in his memorable 1952 campaign, “Let’s talk sense to the American people. Let’s tell them the truth, that there are no gains without pains, that we are now on the eve of great decisions, not easy decisions.”
Romney must tell the people that we cannot go on as we are. He needs to explain the painful but necessary challenge of the reforming and reducing the entitlement state. He should have clear proposals to re-fashion the programs that have failed students, created dependency among the poor, and given most of the benefits to bureaucrats.
Entitlements cannot keep lavishing benefits on those who have the resources to take care of themselves. Romney must propose programs that place the primary emphasis on the elderly poor, the disabled, neglected children. If the prosperous elderly want to continue their generous health care benefits, they must be told they have to pay for them. Otherwise the costs of these programs to the rest of the population will be prohibitive.

We are at a crossroads. As more middle class people become beneficiaries of entitlement programs, the more difficult it will be to wean them away. The public reaction in France and Greece to reductions in retirement benefits and other entitlements, regardless of impending fiscal disaster, is a stark lesson for Americans. We cannot follow the feckless European leaders unable to confront their own pending fiscal disaster.
It is time for presidential candidates to tell us that government cannot solve every social problem with money and bureaucracy; and that it should not be in the business of transferring wealth from the young to the old and financial obligations from the present generation to the future generation. A government that does too much will do little effectively. Decades ago the government did a few things well and largely paid for them. We need to get back to that and have a presidential candidate who can tell us how to get there. Romney should make a major speech telling these obvious and painful truths and make his candidacy important – win or lose.

Posted in Uncategorized

Shadows over South Mountain

Sep04
2012
Leave a Comment Robert Swift Written by Robert Swift

The Civil War battlefield at South Mountain in central Maryland where Union and Confederate soldiers fought for control of three mountain passes 150 years ago is still untouched by development.

Farm fields have given way to second-growth forest and paved roads have replaced dirt farm lanes at Fox’s Gap, Turner’s Gap and Crampton’s Gap.

But the steep slopes and deep ravines that made fighting difficult for the two armies are still there.

A new monument was erected at Fox’s Gap in 2003, and while one can debate whether old battlefields need new monuments, this one is fitting because of a story behind it. READ MORE »

Posted in History, Politics

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G. Terry Madonna, editor