In evaluating Tuesday’s election, let’s realize that in fact it is the Republican Party that is on trial. Against a background of an unpopular Democratic president and a vast majority of people feeling the country is on the wrong track, the Republicans should have a big night.
What will constitute a poor night, a fair night, a big night, and huge night?
A poor night:
Senate: Republicans pick up seats only in South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas and Montana; fail to win close contests in Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, and New Hampshire. They lose seats in Kansas and Georgia with a net gain of 2 seats and fail to win the Senate.
House: Republicans hold the House but only gain about 5 seats.
Governors: The Republicans lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Maine, and Wisconsin; and fail to gain seats in Colorado, Illinois, and Connecticut.
A fair night:
Senate: Republican gain South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, Colorado, and Alaska; but lose Kansas and Georgia, gaining only a tie in the Senate and leaving the Democrats in control.
House: Republicans gain 8 seats.
Governors: The Republicans lose Pennsylvania, Florida and Maine; but gain Colorado Illinois and Connecticut, leaving a draw.
A big night:
Senate: Republicans win South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, Colorado, Alaska, and Iowa; and hold seats in Georgia, Kentucky, and Kansas, giving them a 53-47 margin and control of the Senate.
House: Republicans gain 10 seats.
Governors: The Republicans lose only Pennsylvania, hold Florida and Maine, and gain Colorado, Illinois, and Connecticut.
A huge night:
Senate: The Republicans gain all the seats in the big night scenario and add North Carolina, New Hampshire, and maybe Virginia.
House: Republicans gain 15 seats giving them their biggest majority since the 1920s.
Governors: Even Corbett wins.